Oil Price Shocks And Macroeconomic Performance Of The Algerian Economy: A Structural Var Approach

Résumé: This study delves into the intricate relationship between oil prices and key macroeconomic variables (gross domestic product (GDP), government spending, and inflation) in the context of Algeria. Utilizing annual data spanning from 1990 to 2020 and employing the SVAR methodology, the research elucidates the nuanced responses of these variables to oil price shocks. The findings underscore that a 1% positive shock in oil prices results in a noteworthy 0.24% increase in public spending,. Furthermore, the study reveals a remarkable 1.67% decrease in the inflation rate following a 1% increase in oil prices, attributed to sustained state intervention aimed at bolstering purchasing power and the prudent monetary strategies executed by the Central Bank. Notably, the research highlights a concerning aspect; the 1% positive shock in oil prices corresponds to a 0.17% decline in GDP, attributed to the persistent diminishing contribution of the fuel sector to GDP growth since 2006. To navigate these challenges, policymakers are urged to consider diversifying revenue streams, implementing prudent fiscal measures, and adopting strategies that reduce reliance on oil exports. Additionally, proactive steps to stimulate growth in non-oil sectors should be prioritized to enhance economic resilience and mitigate the adverse effects of oil price volatility.

Publié dans la revue: مجلة بحوث الإدارة والاقتصاد